MLB Awards Season Preview
Another baseball season has come and gone, and thus begins the dark winter days of the offseason. Luckily, awards season follows shortly after the World Series and gives us the ability to look back at the performances of the season. We are here to give you our MLB award predictions as you prepare to hunker down for the cold winter ahead…
AL Rookie of the Year:
AL Rookie of the Year looks to be one of the clearer awards of this season, along with the NL award. But that doesn’t mean other rookies don’t deserve praise and consideration.
The Candidates:
Houston’s Yordan Alvarez is the front runner for the AL RoY, coming on the scene hot with a June start in which he hit .317/.406/.733 with 7 home runs and 21 RBIs through 16 games. These numbers stayed consistent throughout the rest of the season, until his averages dropped in the 23 games he played in September and October. He finished the season at .313/.412/.655, which equals an OPS of 1.067. Alvarez set the Astros’ rookie home run record with 27, totaling 78 RBIs and a 3.7 WAR.
The Toronto Blue Jays showcased some of the finest young talent of the season, with Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Cavan Biggio. Guerrero carried with him one of the most hyped-up debuts of the season, due to his father’s legacy and his minor league feats. Guerrero, a third baseman, got off to a rough start in April, but steadily improved throughout the season, including a 25 game August in which he hit .341/.406/.571 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs. He finished with 15 HRs total, 69 RBIs and slashed .272/.339/.433, not to mention his awesome Home Run Derby performance. The second Blue Jay following a father’s legacy, Bichette joined the scene at the end of July and hit .311/.358/.571 with a .930 OPS through the 46 games he played in the second half of the season. Bichette (SS) hit 11 home runs and knocked in 21 RBIs. The third anticipated Blue Jay was Cavan Biggio, another Hall of Fame son. Biggio (who split time at 2B/1B/RF/LF/DH) had some exciting moments this season, but stayed under the radar given the other young stars on Toronto’s club. In 100 games in 2019, Biggio hit 14 home runs, drove in 48 runs, stole 114 bases and hit .234/.364/.429 with a .793 OPS. Despite the lower batting average, Biggio beat out his teammates with a 2.8 WAR (Bichette and Guerrero each finished with 2.1).
Toronto was not the only team in the AL East with rookie talent, as Tampa Bay and Baltimore both featured rookies who represented their teams at the All-Star Game in Cleveland. After 43 games in 2018, and playing most of his 2019 games at 2B, Tampa’s Brandon Lowe showed his versatility, playing RF, LF, 1B, and as Tampa’s DH. Before season ending injuries, Lowe finished 2019 hitting .270/.336/.514 with a .850 OPS and 17 HRs with a 2.9 WAR. This included an All-Star game appearance and leading Tampa Bay into the playoffs before injuries took him out of the lineup.
The only pitcher remotely in the running for the AL Rookie of the Year is Baltimore’s John Means, who made one pitching appearance in 2018. In 2019, Means started in 27 games and made 31 total appearances. He struck out 121 batters, with a 3.60 ERA, 4.42 FIP, and a 4.41 FIP. On a horrendous Baltimore team, Means finished with a 12–11 record and was on the American League’s pitching staff at the All-Star Game.
The last name to consdier is Luis Arraez, who played a role similar to Lowe on Minnesota’s playoff team. Arraez played most of his games at second, but also played LF, 3B, SS, and DH. Arraez played in 92 games, hitting .334/.399/.439 with a .838 OPS and a weaker 1.8 WAR. Arraez totaled 109 hits with 4 HRs and 28 RBIs.
Prediction: Alvarez wins unanimously
NL Rookie of the Year:
Much like the Junior Circuit, the NL RoY prize seems like it is only inevitable for one rookie in particular. Nonetheless, there was more than one standout NL rookie performance this year.
The Candidates:
Pete Alonso (1B) of the New York Mets will run away with the NL Rookie of the Year award. He stormed onto the stage from the seasons’ start, hitting 9 homers with 26 RBIs and 31 hits through March & April, with an OPS of 1.024. The power never left for Alonso, finishing the season with a Major League rookie home run record of 53. He totaled 103 runs and 120 RBIs and a 5.0 WAR over the season. Despite a low finishing line of .260/.358/.583, and an OPS of .941, Alonso’s power hitting performance puts him above the rest. A rookie year All-Star selection and a legendary Home Run Derby performance don’t hurt either. He also “Hits things real good.”
Staying with rookie All-Stars in the NL East, Atlanta starter Mike Soroka built on a strong five-game 2018 appearance, earning a 13–4 record with a 2.68 ERA over 29 starts. Soroka pitched 174+ innings in 2019, earning a strong WHIP of 1.111 and striking out 142 batters. He shoved against right-handed batters, keeping them to .203/.256/.281 verses his left hander splits of .282/.331/.419. Combined, this equals a .236/.288/.340, with only 14 home runs allowed, demonstrating an ability to keep the ball in the park.
The NL West continues the trend of familiar familial names, with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Yastrzemski. Shortstop Tatis made a big splash early with strong hitting, smart baserunning and flashy fielding. Tatis only played half a season (84 games) due to injury, but still earned a 4.2 WAR, 106 hits, 22 homeruns, and 16 stolen bases with a split of .317/.379/.590 and an OPS of .969. These stats indicate the possibility that if he had played an entire season, he would’ve made a compelling RoY case. June was Tatis’ best month, batting .383/.457/.691 with an OPS of 1.149. The grandson of a popular Hall of Famer, Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski hit 21 homers over 107 games, and split .272/.334/.518. Yastrzemski’s numbers aren’t high enough to win the award given the aforementioned competition, but certainly held up his family’s baseball name and is a player Giants fans should be excited for in what has been a gloomy era in San Francisco.
Other National League honorable mentions include Diamondbacks 1B Christian Walker and Pirates LF Bryan Reynolds. After being up and down from the Majors since 2014, Walker hit .259/.348/.476 with 29 homeruns and 137 hits in his first full season (152 games). Reynolds played 134 games in his first season, hitting 16 homers with .314/.377/.503 splits. His WAR of 3.9 and OPS of .880 show he’s someone to look out for in years to come.
Prediction: Alonso wins in a landslide
AL Manager of the Year:
Manager of the year is always one of the weird awards each year, without many stats to reference like we do for other awards. That being said, the American League featured expected dominance and surprised successes, making this a tougher one to decipher.
The Candidates:
Let’s just throw these names out there: Aaron Boone, A.J. Hinch, Kevin Cash, and Rocco Baldelli. These men led four of the five American League playoff teams, and each got their team to the postseason in different ways.
Aaron Boone’s Yankees were widely expected to be a power this season, and they were…but not in the way they were expected to be. Injuries plagued the Yankees this season, sending over 30 players to the injured list by the end of the season, plus injuries that became public following the conclusion of the postseason. This led to the battle cry of “next man up” and almost entirely new lineups every game. However, Boone took these circumstances and navigated his team to a 100-win season and a division championship for the first time in several years.
Kevin Cash’s Tampa Bay Rays started the season having to face a division that included the defending champion Red Sox and the aforementioned hyped Yankees. Coming off a surprising 90 win season a year ago, Cash led the Rays in an effort to improve on that stellar 2018 season and take that next step into the playoffs; and that’s just what they did. Tampa Bay finished with a record of 96–66, good enough for 2nd place in the vaunted American League East and good enough for the 2nd American League Wild Card spot, en route to an appearance in the American League Division Series. What Kevin Cash accomplished this year, and what he has accomplished in the last number of years, can not go unnoticed and he is certainly deserving of being named Manager of the Year.
As announced last week, the remaining finalist for AL MoY is Rocco Baldelli. With no prior managerial experience, Baldelli was hired by the Twins following a disappointing 2018 campaign. In his first season at the helm, Baldelli led Minnesota to a 101 win season, an AL Central title and the all-time single season home run record. Coming off an AL Wild Card appearance in 2017 followed by a 78 win 2018 campaign, no one really knew what to expect from the now Baldelli-led Twins, and although their run ended in an ALDS sweep at the hands of the Yankees, Minnesota was, and will continue to be, a force to be reckoned with in the AL Central.
Although not a finalist, one name that has to be mentioned is that of AJ Hinch. Some may overlook Hinch because of the expectations had for the Astros prior to the season, but there is something to say for living up to expectations. At times, Houston, like the Yankees, had to rely on impacts from young, unsuspecting players. Hinch and the Astros rolled all the way into the Fall Classic only to be beaten in 7 games by the red hot Washington Nationals.
Prediction: Boone prevails fairly easily
NL Manager of the Year:
Along similar lines as the AL, the National League MoY comes down to four managers of the five NL playoff teams; Craig Counsell, Mike Shildt, Brian Snitker and Davey Martinez. This is without a doubt the most debatable and closely contested race we’ve discussed to this point.
The Candidates:
Fifth year Brewers skipper Craig Counsell, coming off a 2nd place MoY finish and NLCS appearance in 2018, was once again able to lead Milwaukee to the playoffs. What sticks out about Counsell’s effort and this Brewers run is the fact that reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich missed a majority of the final month of the regular season. Many wrote off the Brewers after news of Yelich’s injury broke but after a 13–5 run in Yelich’s absence to end the regular season, the Brewers found themselves in the National League Wild Card Game. Unfortunately, that Wild Card Game would prove to be the end of the 2019 Brewers as they fell to the eventual World Series champion Nationals.
When Mike Matheny was fired in July of 2018, Mike Shildt took the reigns on an interim basis. Amid a strong finish to that 2018 season, Shildt was hired full time as the new Cardinals manager. After a productive offseason, expectations began to mount for the 2019 Cardinals. After a hot start to the season, St. Louis faltered through May (9–18) and June (13–13), but ultimately regained form en route to a 91–71 finish atop the NL Central. This ability by the Cardinals to overcome such a roller-coaster season is the main driving force behind Mike Shildt’s MoY candidacy.
The final finalist for NL MoY is the man who took home the 2018 award. Brian Snitker led the Atlanta Braves to a second consecutive NL East title by way of a 97 win season. Coming off a fairly surprising 2018 campaign, the Braves proved that 2018 was no fluke, with an even stronger showing in 2019. A very good manager led a very good team to exceed expectations and position themselves well for a playoff run. However, the St. Louis Cardinals, led by the aforementioned Mike Shildt, were able to outduel the Braves in the NLDS, ending another spectacular season in Atlanta.
The final manager that deserves to be mentioned here is World Champion Davey Martinez. If the postseason were taken into account for these awards, Martinez would likely be the favorite for NL MoY. In recent years, the managers chair in D.C. has been a bit of a revolving door, but it seems they finally have found their guy. After losing face of the franchise Bryce Harper and a 19–31 start to the 2019 season, many pronounced the Nationals dead and were ready to fire Martinez; then everything changed. Davey Martinez lead the Nationals on one of the more unexpected and impressive runs we have seen in recent memory, as not only did they overcome that dreadful start, they overcame deficits in the Wild Card Game, the NLDS and the World Series, en route to the first championship in franchise history.
Prediction: Shildt squeaks it out by a slim margin
AL Cy Young:
The 2018 Houston Astros starting rotation featured all three finalists for the 2019 American League Cy Young award; Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Charlie Morton. An additional thing these guys all have in common is that their careers turned a corner when acquired by Houston. The aging Verlander and Morton both came over in 2017 and rejuvenated their careers, while the former #1 overall pick Cole was able to take that next step after being traded by the Pirates prior to the 2018 season.
The Candidates:
In his age 36 season, Justin Verlander put up likely his best season since 2011, when he won both the Cy Young and AL MVP. This 2019 campaign, highlighted by his 21–6 record, 2.58 ERA, 300 strikeouts and the league lead in innings pitched (223.0) and WHIP (0.803), likely solidified his spot in the Hall of Fame as he reached 3,000 career strikeouts in late September. With such a storied career, it is almost hard to believe that Verlander owns just one Cy Young Award(although he has finished 2nd three times), but this could very well be the year that changes.
In, without a doubt, his best season to date, which included one of the more dominant season-ending stretches we’ve ever seen, Gerrit Cole is the biggest challenger to Verlander. With a league leading 2.50 ERA, 326 strikeouts and 2.64 FIP in a contract year, Cole is expected to sign the richest pitching contract our game has ever seen, and a Cy Young Award to his name could just be the icing on the cake.
Finally, former Astro Charlie Morton put together a fairly under-the-radar terrific season. Leading one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, Morton put together a 2019 campaign that included a 16–6 record, 3.05 ERA, 240 strikeouts and 1.084 WHIP over 33 games started. Ultimately, this is an amazing season, especially at age 35, but just isn’t enough to compete with the likes of Verlander and Cole.
Prediction: Cole barely tops Verlander
NL Cy Young:
The National League features yet another tight race as you could make a case for any of the three finalists. Jacob deGrom, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Max Scherzer all are deserving of the honor of winning this year’s NL Cy Young Award, but obviously, only one can take it home.
The Candidates:
Repeat winners seem to be the trend in the National League when it comes to the Cy Young, as Randy Johnson (‘99-’02), Tim Lincecum (‘08-’09), Clayton Kershaw (‘13-’14) and Max Scherzer (‘16-’17)have all done so since 2000. Could this trend hold true in 2019? Jacob deGrom once again provides a compelling case. deGrom was historically great in 2018, and while he was unable to duplicate such a rare performance, he put together another stellar campaign in 2019. Pitching to a 2.43 ERA and league leading 255 strikeouts, deGrom amounted the highest WAR for an NL pitcher, at 7.3.
Hyun-Jin Ryu got off to a scorching start in 2019 as he featured an ERA of 1.73 at the All-Star Break and earned the honor of starting the All Star Game in Cleveland, for the NL. While his second half didn’t match his phenomenal first half, Ryu was able to ride that start to a league leading 2.32 ERA to end the season. While his strikeout numbers won’t jump off the page, Ryu has proved to be a reliable front-end starter with a career ERA of 2.98. Like the aforementioned Gerrit Cole, Ryu is now a free agent and will look to cash in on a career best season.
Three-time Cy Young Award winner and now World Series Champion Max Scherzer rounds out the trio of NL finalists. As one of the most dominant hurlers of the decade, 2019 was not Scherzer’s best year, but he still put together a season worthy of consideration for the Cy Young. A league leading 12.7 K/9 and 2.45 FIP, in addition to a 2.92 ERA show what Max was able to accomplish in 2019, but what will define his season is how it ended with his first championship.
Prediction: deGrom wins narrowly over Ryu
AL MVP:
To me, this will provide the most interesting result of any award this year. You’ve got the undoubted best player in baseball Mike Trout, a guy who essentially carried the eventual American League champion Houston Astros in Alex Bregman and finally a guy who NOBODY expected to be an MVP finalist when this season kicked off in late March, Marcus Semien.
The Contenders:
As mentioned, Mike Trout is without a doubt, the best player our game has to offer. The 2019 version of Trout showed increased power, as he hit a career best 45 home runs, with a slightly decreased batting average of .291. There is a fair amount of people who feel that a late season injury cost Trout his 3rd MVP, but Trout still played 134 games and amassed league bests in OBP(.438), SLG (.645), OPS (1.083) and OPS+ (185). Additionally, Mike Trout amassed a WAR of 8.3, which falls just 0.1 short of fellow contender Alex Bregman who played 22 extra games. In his eight full seasons in the majors, Trout has finished lower than 2nd in MVP voting just once, in 2017, when he only played 114 games due to injury and still finished 4th.
Without Alex Bregman, who knows where the 2019 Houston Astros would’ve ended up. With injuries scattered throughout their roster, the one constant in the lineup for Houston was Alex Bregman, who played 156 games. Bregman slashed .296/.423/.592, good for an OPS north of 1.000, in addition to 41 home runs, 112 RBI and a league leading 119 walks. Alex Bregman has solidified himself as a true superstar and is just 25 years old but did he do enough to steal the MVP from Mike Trout?
In this day and age, it is very rare to have a player play all 162 games for his team throughout the regular season. Not only did Marcus Semien accomplish this feat for the A’s, but he exceeded all expectations in terms of production. Putting up career bests in just about every statistical category, Semien slashed .285/.369/.429 with 33 home runs and 92 RBI, and led Oakland to yet another (although short) playoff appearance. A very good and unexpected season for Semien deserves great recognition but it is just not enough to compete with Trout and Bregman for the AL MVP.
Prediction: Trout wins a close battle
NL MVP:
It is a three horse race for NL MVP, as hot starts powered Christian Yelich and Clay Bellinger through the 2019 season and consistent excellence from world champion Anthony Rendon give us our three finalists. If postseason performance were taken into account, Rendon would likely be the odds-on favorite to take home the hardware but that’s not the case and an argument could be made for all three finalists.
Contenders:
Much like Mike Trout, the only thing that may stand between Christian Yelich and the 2019 NL MVP Award is that injury he suffered in early September. Also like Trout, Yelich led his league in OBP (.429), SLG (.671), OPS (1.100) and OPS+ (179). However, Yelich was also able to pace the NL in batting average, winning his second straight batting title, at .329. These numbers, along with 97 RBI and a career high in home runs (44), present a very strong case for Yelich to take home his second NL MVP.
Similar to Yelich, Cody Bellinger, got off to a scorching start in 2019, sitting with a batting average of .431 and OPS of 1.397 at the end of April. Unfortunately for Bellinger, his season AVG decreased gradually each month before settling in at .305 by season’s end. Putting up career bests in just about every statistical category, Bellinger slashed .305/.406/.629, not to mention stellar Gold Glove quality defense, en route to an MLB leading 9.0 WAR.
Our final contender for NL MVP is a man who, very quietly, has been one of baseball’s most productive offensive threats in recent years, Anthony Rendon. 2019, especially October, proved to be the time when a national audience could really appreciate just how great this guy is. Rendon, once again fairly quietly, put together a terrific regular season, putting up NL leading totals in doubles and RBI, along with 34 home runs and a slash line of .319/.412/.598 (1.010 OPS) and sparkling defense. Rendon, a free agent, will definitely be able to cash in on a career year and clutch postseason performance this winter.
Prediction: Yelich tops Bellinger and Rendon in an overall close race
- M.J. Benenati and Tyler Benenati; Sports Throne Contributors
