“Playoffs?! You Kidding Me? Playoffs?!”
A Browns loss to Pittsburgh, a Dolphins loss to Buffalo, a Ravens loss to Cincinnati, or a Titans loss to Houston. That, in addition to a win over the one-win Jaguars, was all the Indianapolis Colts needed to reach the postseason.
One team out of four losing may seem likely but with the Steelers resting key starters and the Ravens playing a must-win game of their own against the lowly Bengals, there certainly was hesitation and cause for concern in Indianapolis.
But then, the Buffalo Bills steamrolled the division rival Dolphins and set the stage. Going into their 4:25 EST kickoff, the Colts knew a win would put them in. Although hairy at times in the second half, Indianapolis ultimately took care of business and clinched the final AFC playoff spot at 11–5.
It came down to needing help, but now that they’re in, the Colts could have what it takes to make a deep run into late January…
Let’s start with those five losses.
A fluky Week 1 loss in Jacksonville was unacceptable but there’s no reason to believe it sheds any light on the team’s postseason outlook.
Week 5 in Cleveland, an early deficit put the Colts in a hole and without veteran LT Anthony Castonzo, the offense couldn’t muster up enough to crawl out of it. The Colts got beat that day, but that loss looks much different now, with the Browns also sitting pretty in a playoff spot.
A month later, Indianapolis hosted the Baltimore Ravens (another playoff team) and got off to a hot start before fizzling out and once again not having the offense to keep up, albeit against an elite defense.
Three weeks after that (and two weeks after beating the Titans in primetime), the Colts limped into their second matchup with Tennessee with key players up and down the defensive line, plus pro-bowl C Ryan Kelly and rookie RB Jonathan Taylor out due to COVID-19 protocols. With the Colts unable to stop Derrick Henry and the Titans run game, it got ugly. This loss ended up hurting the Colts dearly as Tennessee took the division, but again, as depleted as they were, there really isn’t anything else to be drawn about Indy’s playoff destiny from this game.
Finally, on the last Sunday of December, the Colts lead the Pittsburgh Steelers 24–7 early in the third quarter, before an ultimate collapse. Given they would be playing without both starting offensive tackles, this was a game many were pessimistic about going in but after the impressive showing in the first half, chalking this one up as a loss certainly hurt.
Ultimately when looking at several of these losses, there is one thing in common; key contributors missing the biggest of games. Anthony Castonzo in Cleveland, DeForest Buckner, Denico Autry, Ryan Kelly, Jonathan Taylor against Tennessee, and both Castonzo and Braden Smith in Pittsburgh. This is not meant to come off as an excuse, but rather as pointing out that these starters, with the exception of Castonzo, will be available (barring any future issues) in the postseason.
Now that the context has been laid out, let’s take a look into why this team has what it takes to make a run, starting with their big play defense.
Do the Colts have the best defense in the league? Absolutely not. Do they even have a Top 5 defense? Probably not. You can goup and down the field against this defense, but what makes this defense special is its playmaking ability. From DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard to Kenny Moore II and Xavier Rhodes, the Colts have playmakers all over the place on defense.
In the offseason, Colts GM Chris Ballard emphasized the need to improve in terms of taking the ball away in a game-changing fashion and that’s exactly what they’ve done. 5th in takeaways and 2nd in turnover differential, the Colts defense has stepped up in the biggest moments when the team most needed them.
At first glance, these occurrences can be seen as nothing more than a bit of ‘turnover luck’, when in reality, these clutch moments are the product of the one underlying trait littered throughout this defense; effort. It was rookie Julian Blackmon forcing a fumble in OT against Green Bay, breakout DT Grover Stewart knocking a loose ball out of the reach of Deshaun Watson in the final minute in Houston and superstar Darius Leonard punching the ball free (again in the final minute) at home against the same Texans.
Again, this Colts defense isn’t the best, or even most talented but due to their relentless tenacity and ball-hawking tendencies, they have the ability to turn a game on its head and tilt the momentum in their favor.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Indianapolis rushing attack has been gaining steam for much of the back half of the season.
After losing Marlon Mack, RB1 and a 1,000 yard rusher just a year ago, on the second offensive series in Week 1, the Colts struggled to find a consistent run game, as they shuffled back and forth between rookie Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins.
One of the most productive runners in college football history, Taylor was expected to be the bell-cow following the loss of Mack, but after considerable struggles, he was all but benched. Those struggles included a three game stretch of 22, 12 and 27 yards respectively, including a game-altering lost fumble against Baltimore.
But then, something clicked for Taylor who has not run for less than 74 yards in his last six games. Overall, in the final half-dozen games of the regular season, the rookie has bulldozed his way to 741 yards, at a clip of 6.23 yards per attempt, and 7 touchdowns. Taylor has developed into the type of runner that can take over a ballgame, and that entirely alters the outlook for how the Colts will be viewed throughout the postseason.
Beyond just the run game, the Colts offense has continued to evolve throughout the season. A major reason for that has been the reemergence of T.Y. Hilton.
Hilton, now in his ninth season in Indy, was practically nonexistent in the early going of the 2020 season. This disappearing act piggybacking off a 2019 campaign in which Hilton missed six games due to injury, sparked conversation into a steep decline for the now thirty-one year old. Much like Jonathan Taylor, Hilton took a leap over the final six games; putting up 435 yards on 27 receptions (an average of 4.5 catches and 72.5 yards per game) and five touchdowns.
Come playoff time, the Colts should lean heavily on the run game but having the ability to strike through the air when necessary will be vital, and the veteran Hilton has proven he can provide just that.
Perhaps the biggest reason to buy into this Colts team is the incredible balance they possess in all three phases of the game.
Many teams boast an elite offense, but inadequate defense (like Tennessee), or even an effective run game but an inability to throw the ball consistently (like Baltimore). This, however, is not an issue with the Colts. Sure, they have their weaknesses (most notably pressuring opposing QBs) but none of which are as glaring as often seen throughout the league. You simply cannot expose a balanced team by taking away a singular strength, and that’s the challenge Indianapolis provides to opponents. Again, this is not to say the Colts are perfect or even close to it, but their weaknesses are comparatively less drastic and thus less vulnerable.
A true mix of experienced veterans and young difference makers is perhaps the most potent recipe for success in the postseason.
Over the last three years, the argument can be made that no team has been better at drafting/bringing in young talent than the Indianapolis Colts. When you dissect those last three drafts under GM Chris Ballard, it is evident that is where the foundation of this team has been built.
2018 was highlighted by Quenton Nelson and Darius Leonard (both of which were named ‘All-Pro’ in their rookie season), but also included the likes of Pro Bowl snub Braden Smith (2nd rd), leading pass catcher Nyheim Hines (4th rd), and Kemoko Turay (2nd rd) who when healthy has shown flashes of his potential.
In 2019, although not as flashy, it was key defensive playmakers Bobby Okereke (3rd rd) and Khari Willis (4th rd), starters Rock Ya-Sin (2nd rd) and Parris Campbell (who will likely miss the entirety of the playoffs) and special team asset EJ Speed (5th rd).
Any consideration about this draft success being a fluky occurrence was dispelled in 2020, when the Colts selected WR Michael Pittman Jr., RB Jonathan Taylor (NFL’s third leading rusher as a rookie) and playmaking FS Julian Blackmon (NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate for much of the season) with their first three picks. Followed up with OL Danny Pinter (who has seen considerable action as a rookie despite being a 5th round pick), CB Isaiah Rodgers (proven to be one of the most dangerous kick returners in the league) and special teams weapon Jordan Glasgow, 2020 could prove to be the deepest draft class executed by Ballard & Co (not to mention the undrafted free agent signing of kicker Rodrigo Blankenship).
Combine that youth with the presence of Philip Rivers, TY Hilton, Jack Doyle and Jared Veldheer on the offense and Justin Houston and Xavier Rhodes on the defense, and the Colts, even with how young they are, remain far from “inexperienced” heading into the postseason.
On February 6, 2018 the Indianapolis Colts announced the hiring of Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels as their new Head Coach. That was until McDaniels backed out at the last hour, portraying the Colts as a laughing stock. This situation however could not have turned out any better for Indy. Now, heading into the 2020 postseason, the Colts coaching staff may be exactly what they need to make a deep run.
Frank Reich, a man who was seemingly not on anyone’s radar that offseason, was fresh off a Super Bowl title with the Philadelphia Eagles, when he was tabbed as the man for the job. A career backup, who led an offense with a backup QB to a Super Bowl victory over the vaunted New England Patriots, there is perhaps no one more suited to play the role of underdog. That is what has fueled his early success in Indy and could catapult the Colts past the likes of Buffalo and Kansas City.
As far as McDaniels goes, there is one major piece remaining from the staff he was preparing in Indianapolis; Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus. Eberflus, a hot commodity this offseason as a potential head coach, has his defense playing beyond their talent with an effort-based tenacity that has to concern opposing offensive coaches.
Reich at the helm of the offense, and Eberflus (who Reich didn’t even hire) leading the defense has turned into quite the effective marriage, the type that has made Indianapolis tough to beat.
It bears repeating that the 2020 Indianapolis Colts are far from perfect and while these factors could jolt them on a deep playoff run, it’s important to not ignore exactly what could hold this team back.
The Colts biggest concern, which was touched upon briefly, is the loss of Anthony Castonzo. In the three games played without Castonzo prior to Week 17, the Colts surrendered nine sacks, whereas in the dozen games played with their franchise LT, Indianapolis allowed just ten. This blow will be lessened with the addition of veteran Jared Veldheer, who signed out of retirement just days before the Colts took on the Jags I Week 17. Veldheer played serviceably and will provide valuable experience along the offensive line but this will be a situation to monitor closely.
Next up is the also aforementioned lack of consistent pass rush. At times, Indy has been able to get enough pressure on opposing QB’s but in spots, such as the second half in Pittsburgh, they have allowed quarterbacks the time to sit patiently in the pocket and attack down the field. This is the aspect of the defense to gauge early on, and could lead to Eberflus being forced to send additional help in the form of blitzing more often, which goes against how the Colts are primarily built defensively.
Finally, the Colts offense has struggled to produce consistently throughout games. As far as game-to-game, consistency has not been a concern, but as seen in Houston, Pittsburgh and at home against Jacksonville, the problem lies in being able to effectively move the ball for a span of sixty minutes.
In those three games, the Colts scored a combined 65 points in the first half, and just 13 in the final thirty minutes (2 of which came defensively via a safety). While I have praised Reich and the incredible job, he’s done, this falls partly on him. At times, it appears as if he tries to outsmart himself and gets too “cute” at times. Reich is a unique, aggressive play-caller which tends to work out a great deal, but at times fails miserably and leaves fans scratching their heads. Overall I would not be concerned about Frank Reich, but again, these occasional struggles have resulted in handicapping the momentum and flow of the offense.
I would also be foolish to not mention that the Colts, given that they are the seventh seed, have the most challenging road of any, if they want to reach the Super Bowl in Tampa and even the AFC Championship Game. Going into Buffalo to beat the Bills is tough enough by itself, but even a victory there would just send the Colts to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, the heavy favorite to take home the Lombardi Trophy in February.
Without the league’s new playoff format, the Colts would have their bags packed and would be watching this weekend’s games from home just like the rest of us.
And yes, they needed help to sneak into the final Wild Card spot, but this isn’t your normal lowest-seed.
This isn’t the 8–8 Bears or the 7–9 Washington Football Team; this is an 11–5 team with all the makings to beat anybody on any given Sunday (or Saturday).
